0.847
92
+15%
73
0.612
88
-8%
45
0.923
67
ClearResolveResolution Risk Intelligence

Trust Score Methodology

Our quantitative framework transforms subjective resolution risk into objective, explainable Trust Scores. This page documents the full methodology behind our 8-factor model.

Overview

ClearResolve analyzes prediction markets across 8 independent factors, each contributing to a composite Trust Score from 0-100. Higher scores indicate lower resolution risk.

Primary Factors
60% of total score
Rule clarity, source reliability, resolver reputation, dispute risk
Secondary Factors
40% of total score
Resolution speed, wallet behaviour, evidence integrity, liquidity quality

Primary Factors (60%)

1

Rule Clarity

Weight: 15%

Measures how precisely resolution conditions are defined using NLP analysis of market rules.

Scoring Criteria:

  • 90-100: Explicit thresholds, dates, and actors with no ambiguity
  • 70-89: Clear conditions with minor interpretation edge cases
  • 50-69: Some vague terms ("significant," "major")
  • 0-49: Highly subjective language or missing key conditions

Example Analysis:

Score: 95/100

"Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 on December 31, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance?"

✓ Specific threshold, exact date, named source

Score: 35/100

"Will Trump have a major scandal before the election?"

✗ Undefined: what qualifies as "major"? Which election?

2

Source Reliability

Weight: 15%

Evaluates the historical accuracy and credibility of designated resolution sources.

Source Tier Classification:

  • Tier 1 (90-100): Government agencies, central banks, official election results
  • Tier 2 (70-89): Reputable news (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg), academic journals
  • Tier 3 (50-69): Single news outlet, Wikipedia, social media polls
  • Tier 4 (0-49): Subjective or undefined ("general consensus," "expert opinion")
3

Resolver Reputation

Weight: 15%

Assesses the track record of the designated market resolver or oracle.

Reputation Metrics:

  • Total markets resolved vs disputed
  • Average resolution time
  • Reversal rate (initial decision overturned)
  • Community trust score (if available)
  • Years active as resolver
4

Dispute Risk

Weight: 15%

Probability that the market resolution will be contested based on historical category patterns.

Historical Dispute Rates by Category:

CategoryDispute RateScore Impact
Sports2%High (90+)
Economics8%Medium (70-89)
Elections15%Medium (50-69)
Geopolitics28%Low (0-49)

Secondary Factors (40%)

5

Resolution Speed

Weight: 10%

Expected time to resolution based on rule complexity and event type.

  • High Score: Resolution within 24 hours of event (sports scores, price thresholds)
  • Medium Score: 1-7 days (election certifications, quarterly earnings)
  • Low Score: 7-30 days (investigations, policy announcements)
  • Very Low: >30 days or indefinite timeframe
6

Wallet Behaviour Intelligence

Weight: 10%

On-chain analysis of wallet positions and participant classification.

Wallet Classification System:

  • Informed Traders: >60% win rate, avg position >$1K
  • Market Makers: High volume, both sides, tight spreads
  • Retail: <60% win rate, smaller positions
  • Bots: Automated pattern detection

Scoring Impact:

Higher scores when informed traders (>60% win rate) hold majority positions, indicating confidence from historically accurate participants.

7

Evidence Integrity

Weight: 10%

Quality and consistency of real-world evidence tracked across 500+ news sources.

Evidence Quality Metrics:

  • Number of corroborating sources (consensus strength)
  • Source reliability tier (Tier 1 vs Tier 3 sources)
  • Conflicting evidence ratio
  • Time decay (recent vs stale information)
  • NLP confidence score on entity/event extraction
8

Liquidity Quality

Weight: 10%

Real-time orderbook health and price stability analysis.

Liquidity Metrics:

  • Bid-Ask Spread: Tight (<1%), Moderate (1-3%), Wide (>3%)
  • Depth: Liquidity within 1% of mid-price
  • Price Fragility: Impact of $1,000 market order
  • Volatility: Stability between snapshots

Tier-Based Snapshot Frequency:

  • Tier 1: $50K+ volume, 5-minute snapshots
  • Tier 2: $5K-50K volume, 30-minute snapshots
  • Tier 3: <$5K volume, 4-hour snapshots

Final Score Calculation

The composite Trust Score is computed as a weighted average:

TrustScore = (
  (Rule_Clarity × 0.15) +
  (Source_Reliability × 0.15) +
  (Resolver_Reputation × 0.15) +
  (Dispute_Risk × 0.15) +
  (Resolution_Speed × 0.10) +
  (Wallet_Behaviour × 0.10) +
  (Evidence_Integrity × 0.10) +
  (Liquidity_Quality × 0.10)
)
85-100
Grade A
Highly Trusted
70-84
Grade B
Trusted
50-69
Grade C
Moderate Risk
0-49
Grade D
High Risk

Methodology Transparency

ClearResolve's scoring model is deterministic and explainable. For every market, users can drill down into the 8-factor breakdown to understand why a score was assigned.

Methodology Commitments:

  • No black-box AI models for final scoring (only for NLP parsing)
  • Weights are configurable and version-controlled
  • Factor scores are visible to all Pro+ users
  • Historical score changes are auditable
  • Model updates are documented in our public changelog

For questions about methodology, contact research@ponteng.com

Limitations & Disclaimers

Trust Scores are probabilistic risk assessments, not outcome predictions.

  • High scores do not guarantee clean resolution (edge cases exist)
  • Low scores do not mean markets will definitely dispute
  • NLP parsing may misinterpret complex legal language
  • Historical data may not predict unprecedented events
  • Wallet classification accuracy depends on sufficient transaction history

Always perform your own due diligence before trading.